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Zimbabwe - Latest Developments
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27 Feb 2008
>POLICE'S APPARENT LICENCE TO USE FIREARMS UNDERLINES THREAT OF VIOLENCE DURING MARCH ELECTION CYCLE
Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri on 26 February threatened that officers would be ready to use firearms to quell unrest related to the 29 March presidential and parliamentary elections.
Although the statement marks no real departure from previous police practice, it underlines the significant threat of violence during the election cycle. The remarks above all indicate that the state is likely to employ force as a tool of political repression and intimidation, which will target opposition members rather than business personnel. Civil unrest, the majority of which tends to centre on high-density urban areas, to date has not targeted business personnel, but poses a clear incidental risk. In light of the ever deteriorating economic climate, Control Risks also believes that there is significant potential for opportunistic looting and unrest.
The fragile political environment means that businesses and personnel should be vigilant for any signs of an escalation in unrest or action by the security forces. They are advised to exercise extreme caution in the run-up to the polls, restrict their movements where possible and avoid frequenting public venues. Control Risks continues to advise companies to maintain up-to-date evacuation plans and recommends close monitoring throughout the election period.
Impact on voting process
Political violence and repression are likely to have a significant impact on the voting process, primarily by dashing public hopes of a free and fair election. This may well translate into high levels of abstentions rather than a groundswell of violence. Nonetheless, given Zimbabwe's 'stalled political transition', there is considerable potential for violence in the post-election period.
Control Risks expects a degree of political violence and looting regardless of the election outcome, but this need not foreshadow a complete and sudden breakdown in law and order. However, a scenario under which octogenarian President Robert Mugabe is dislodged from power is potentially more dangerous, given that this could prompt a violent response from security forces loyal to Mugabe, war veterans and youth militias (known as the 'Green Bombers'). Ultimately the winner's ability to maintain the unity of the security forces will be crucial to any preservation of law and order. By contrast, an organised uprising in response to the poll outcome is more unlikely, though acute economic hardship will provide an impetus for looting.
Character of violence
Earlier in February, officials imposed a ban on carrying weapons in public, but this will not materially improve the security climate, considering that the security forces form a crucial element of the threat. Members of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) have reported increasing harassment, arrests and most recently, the burning of houses of MDC members. There are clear signs that, as in previous elections, ruling-party officials will use food aid as a tool of patronage in rural areas. In light of the escalating economic crisis, the distribution and/or withholding of aid are likely to fuel looting and robberies.
19 Feb 2008
>DIVIDED ELECTORAL CHALLENGERS UNLIKELY TO GATHER MOMENTUM NEEDED TO UNSEAT PRESIDENT AT MARCH POLLS
A nominations court in the capital Harare on 15 February confirmed four official candidates for the March presidential election. As well as incumbent President Robert Mugabe, former finance minister Simba Makoni will stand as an independent candidate; the leader of the main wing of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Morgan Tsvangirai, also intends to run.
The political landscape, for several years stale and polarised, has taken on a different complexion in recent weeks. Although developments have galvanised hopes of a foreseeable end to Mugabe's regime, the challengers will face an uphill struggle in trying to unseat the incumbent. Mugabe is most likely to fear an opposition agreement to field a single candidate, but there will be insufficient time for the various interests to negotiate such a strategy in advance of the polls. Nonetheless, shaken out of complacency by Makoni's candidacy, Mugabe is likely to rely heavily on enforcers – including war veterans and the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF)'s youth militias, the 'Green Bombers' – to intimidate opposition supporters as the elections draw nearer.
Challengers
Makoni, who emerged from within ZANU-PF, has so far failed to publicly reveal the names of any high-profile backers, but his candidacy nonetheless indicates the increasing factionalism within the party and suggests that behind the scenes manoeuvring is under way in anticipation of Mugabe's eventual downfall. Makoni's decision to stand as an independent, and his call for other disillusioned ZANU-PF members to follow suit rather than forming a new party, strongly suggests that he has an eye on the medium-term future, rather than staking his hopes on winning the presidency this time around. Meanwhile, the announcement from the breakaway MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara that it will back Makoni rather than former ally Tsvangirai illustrates the weakened force that the opposition has become.
Vote-buying
Widespread vote-buying by ZANU-PF candidates has already been reported during the initial nominations and is expected to continue in the election build-up. The continuing economic crisis and the attendant shortage of basic commodities will mean that voters are particularly susceptible to material inducements. However, the lack of cohesion at all levels of ZANU-PF has been demonstrated by several reports of multiple party candidates registering to contest the elections at local and provincial levels. The party is so concerned about the prospect of split votes that it has threatened to expel duplicate candidates who refuse to withdraw.
> Latest developments
> Update
----------------------------------------------------------------------
27 Feb 2008
>POLICE'S APPARENT LICENCE TO USE FIREARMS UNDERLINES THREAT OF VIOLENCE DURING MARCH ELECTION CYCLE
Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri on 26 February threatened that officers would be ready to use firearms to quell unrest related to the 29 March presidential and parliamentary elections.
Although the statement marks no real departure from previous police practice, it underlines the significant threat of violence during the election cycle. The remarks above all indicate that the state is likely to employ force as a tool of political repression and intimidation, which will target opposition members rather than business personnel. Civil unrest, the majority of which tends to centre on high-density urban areas, to date has not targeted business personnel, but poses a clear incidental risk. In light of the ever deteriorating economic climate, Control Risks also believes that there is significant potential for opportunistic looting and unrest.
The fragile political environment means that businesses and personnel should be vigilant for any signs of an escalation in unrest or action by the security forces. They are advised to exercise extreme caution in the run-up to the polls, restrict their movements where possible and avoid frequenting public venues. Control Risks continues to advise companies to maintain up-to-date evacuation plans and recommends close monitoring throughout the election period.
Impact on voting process
Political violence and repression are likely to have a significant impact on the voting process, primarily by dashing public hopes of a free and fair election. This may well translate into high levels of abstentions rather than a groundswell of violence. Nonetheless, given Zimbabwe's 'stalled political transition', there is considerable potential for violence in the post-election period.
Control Risks expects a degree of political violence and looting regardless of the election outcome, but this need not foreshadow a complete and sudden breakdown in law and order. However, a scenario under which octogenarian President Robert Mugabe is dislodged from power is potentially more dangerous, given that this could prompt a violent response from security forces loyal to Mugabe, war veterans and youth militias (known as the 'Green Bombers'). Ultimately the winner's ability to maintain the unity of the security forces will be crucial to any preservation of law and order. By contrast, an organised uprising in response to the poll outcome is more unlikely, though acute economic hardship will provide an impetus for looting.
Character of violence
Earlier in February, officials imposed a ban on carrying weapons in public, but this will not materially improve the security climate, considering that the security forces form a crucial element of the threat. Members of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) have reported increasing harassment, arrests and most recently, the burning of houses of MDC members. There are clear signs that, as in previous elections, ruling-party officials will use food aid as a tool of patronage in rural areas. In light of the escalating economic crisis, the distribution and/or withholding of aid are likely to fuel looting and robberies.
19 Feb 2008
>DIVIDED ELECTORAL CHALLENGERS UNLIKELY TO GATHER MOMENTUM NEEDED TO UNSEAT PRESIDENT AT MARCH POLLS
A nominations court in the capital Harare on 15 February confirmed four official candidates for the March presidential election. As well as incumbent President Robert Mugabe, former finance minister Simba Makoni will stand as an independent candidate; the leader of the main wing of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Morgan Tsvangirai, also intends to run.
The political landscape, for several years stale and polarised, has taken on a different complexion in recent weeks. Although developments have galvanised hopes of a foreseeable end to Mugabe's regime, the challengers will face an uphill struggle in trying to unseat the incumbent. Mugabe is most likely to fear an opposition agreement to field a single candidate, but there will be insufficient time for the various interests to negotiate such a strategy in advance of the polls. Nonetheless, shaken out of complacency by Makoni's candidacy, Mugabe is likely to rely heavily on enforcers – including war veterans and the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF)'s youth militias, the 'Green Bombers' – to intimidate opposition supporters as the elections draw nearer.
Challengers
Makoni, who emerged from within ZANU-PF, has so far failed to publicly reveal the names of any high-profile backers, but his candidacy nonetheless indicates the increasing factionalism within the party and suggests that behind the scenes manoeuvring is under way in anticipation of Mugabe's eventual downfall. Makoni's decision to stand as an independent, and his call for other disillusioned ZANU-PF members to follow suit rather than forming a new party, strongly suggests that he has an eye on the medium-term future, rather than staking his hopes on winning the presidency this time around. Meanwhile, the announcement from the breakaway MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara that it will back Makoni rather than former ally Tsvangirai illustrates the weakened force that the opposition has become.
Vote-buying
Widespread vote-buying by ZANU-PF candidates has already been reported during the initial nominations and is expected to continue in the election build-up. The continuing economic crisis and the attendant shortage of basic commodities will mean that voters are particularly susceptible to material inducements. However, the lack of cohesion at all levels of ZANU-PF has been demonstrated by several reports of multiple party candidates registering to contest the elections at local and provincial levels. The party is so concerned about the prospect of split votes that it has threatened to expel duplicate candidates who refuse to withdraw.
Sabbatical
Jo-Ann and I are soon to begin our 6 month sabbatical.
We will be travelling to New Zealand via Singapore (staying 2 weeks) and will then spend 4 weeks travelling around New Zealand in a campervan (motorhome). Jo-Ann's mother will be travelling with us.
When we leave New Zealand we will return for another 2 weeks in Singapore and may go up to Penang in Malaysia to have a look around.
We return to the UK in June and will go camping in France for a while, with our bicycles and kayaks. We will camp near a large lake near Bordeaux in South West France, not far from the ocean and the most famous wine producing area in the world (or maybe it's the second after Champagne?).
Our friend Bon Kwa will join us in France for a couple of weeks.
We also have plans to travel to the US, North Carolina to visit Jo-Ann's sister Angie and my favourite American niece, Priscilla, and nephew, Jeremy.
We also plan to travel around Northern Scotland to see the Scottish Highlands and islands.
We intend to use this blog to post our day-to-day travel diary and some photo's.
Richard
We will be travelling to New Zealand via Singapore (staying 2 weeks) and will then spend 4 weeks travelling around New Zealand in a campervan (motorhome). Jo-Ann's mother will be travelling with us.
When we leave New Zealand we will return for another 2 weeks in Singapore and may go up to Penang in Malaysia to have a look around.
We return to the UK in June and will go camping in France for a while, with our bicycles and kayaks. We will camp near a large lake near Bordeaux in South West France, not far from the ocean and the most famous wine producing area in the world (or maybe it's the second after Champagne?).
Our friend Bon Kwa will join us in France for a couple of weeks.
We also have plans to travel to the US, North Carolina to visit Jo-Ann's sister Angie and my favourite American niece, Priscilla, and nephew, Jeremy.
We also plan to travel around Northern Scotland to see the Scottish Highlands and islands.
We intend to use this blog to post our day-to-day travel diary and some photo's.
Richard
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